The size of the United States food service market is expected to be worth USD 754 billion in 2024 and grow at a CAGR of 4% from 2024 to 2029 to achieve USD 917.36 billion by 2029.
The United States food service market is growing rapidly with a special focus on sustainability and environment-friendly practices. Moreover, the majority portion of food-away-from-home spending is captured by commercial food service enterprises. Also, the expenditures for food at home and away from home substantially contribute to the expansion of the United States industry. In 2022, 56.2 per cent share is captured by food away from home, an all-time highest record, and 43.8 per cent by food-at-home expenses. Apart from this, currently, the top food distributors in the USA are Sysco with revenue of 76.32 billion USD in 2023, US Foods, Gordon Food Service, Performance Foodservice and McLane. As per industry experts, the revenue from the restaurants and food service industry is estimated to reach a record 1 trillion dollars by the end of 2024 and the country’s second-highest private sector employer is proceeding as planned to add 200 thousand jobs to take the overall employment level to 15.7 million individuals.
In addition, the rise in demand for personalization in services and easier availability of a wide range of food products also contributes to the market expansion. The surging acceptance of new types of restaurants, like cloud kitchens and shadow eateries especially in delivering food to customers, has registered substantial growth in the past few years. Moreover, key players such as Taco Bell, McDonald’s and KFC are furnishing a large variety of food products at competitive prices to consumers. Furthermore, the higher customer expenditure on fast food continues to push forward the market growth. The other main factors driving the US food service market is the increased digitization of food services, as consumers prefer to book earlier and make payments online.
In the United States of America, the call for organic food is expanding rapidly. Quick-service restaurants (QSRs) are increasing in the nation, which in general, are fast-food restaurants that are not regular table restaurants due to their simple menus, less service, and as the name suggests, the quick service.
According to the study, around 45 per cent of industry players estimate the competition to become more aggressive in 2024 compared to 2023 which is expected to further affect the market expansion. Moreover, the progress of the industry is also hindered by the consistent rise in labour costs. This is because 98 per cent of managers and owners consider this as the main problem for their restaurants. Also, inflated food prices i.e. 97 per cent and another 38 per cent state their restaurants incurred loss in 2023.
Besides this, the formation of the Departments of Labour (DOL) 2024 Overtime Final Rule 2024 will significantly increase executive salaries and administrative or professional exemptions which in the coming years will derail the United States market growth trajectory. Regarding this, a lawsuit alliance of employers has been filed in the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Texas emphasises irreversible damage from the loss of their staff's previously exempt status. Also, the compliance fees will compel the small operators and directors and non-profit establishments on fixed allocations to reduce essential services, hiring and programming to the public.
This includes automation for fast and efficient manufacturing, packing and sorting of food items, 3D printing to make innovative and tailormade shapes, flavours and textures, Internet of Things (IoT) for security and quality checks, tracking inventory and improving food processing and warehousing. Further, artificial intelligence (AI) is being utilised in the market to produce new items, enhance manufacturing procedures and individualise consumer experience. Apart from all this, blockchain technology is also explored to boost traceability and transparency in the supply network.
Moreover, decreasing food waste and reducing the carbon footprint are also challenging the market growth. In addition, acquiring and successfully integrating pathbreaking technological developments exhibits its own problems. Furthermore, regular changes in food laws and regulations for a long time continue to be the main obstacle for the industry players. Likewise, the National Restaurant Association and the Restaurant Law Center (RLC) in May 2024 submitted comments against the Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM)’s Debit Card Interchange Fees and Routing to lower the interchange fees from 14.4 to 6 cents and removal of ad valorem component from this.
The quick service restaurants segment is the fastest-growing category and is believed to capture more market share of the United States food service industry in the future. This can be attributed to the rapid expansion of prominent fast-food brands, increased digitalisation in the food industry and urbanisation. Further, the American Customer Satisfaction Index (ACSI) for fast food restaurants rose in 2024 to 79 per cent by 1 per cent from the 2023 level.
On the other hand, the full-service restaurant (FSR) segment still holds a significant share and will continue to drive further at a moderate CAGR over the projection period. This can be linked to the market share of fast food joints or cafes is constantly increasing due to rapid urbanization and the hectic lifestyle of the population living in metropolitan areas. The upward trend in mobile restaurants, such as food trucks, is also contributing to the positive growth of these fast-service restaurants. Previously, in 2022, full-service with limited-service restaurants together held over 69 per cent of the total food-away-from-home. In the same year-end, the full-service restaurants registered sales growth of 17.3 per cent while all remaining food service institutions recorded the biggest surge of 19.5 per cent. Ever since the FSRs have been moving forward at a lower pace.
The commercial and office premises are the most prevalent segment with the majority portion of the United States food service market share. The segment accounts for about 80 per cent of the food service and restaurant industry. This comprises retail, catering and banquets, restaurants, stadiums, airlines and cruise ships. Apart from this, the presence of over 1 million commercial establishments makes the segment’s market growth rate more resilient than other categories. Also, the industry progressed due to varied menu offerings to satisfy a large number of customer preferences. Additionally, the market players are increasingly focusing on sustainability, environment-friendly packaging, clean labels and transparency.
Whereas, the in-transit food service segment is quickly gaining traction and is anticipated to expand at a higher CAGR during the forecast period. The rising consumption of handy and high-quality food offerings while travelling. Moreover, airlines particularly are adding new meal options from simple beverages or drinks to gourmet meals to assist travellers adapt to time differences on long-distance travel. In addition, higher passenger volumes, evolving customer expectations and technological developments are other factors further elevating the segment’s market share. Key airlines and high-speed rail operators like American, Delta, Amtrak and United are collaborating with eminent chefs to upgrade and provide superior dining options.
The United States food service market witnessed strong growth in recent times. It is predicted to propel further during the forecast period because of the growing demand for plant-based foods, online food orders and clean labels and transparency. The industry’s market share is growing due to customer's progressive shift towards high-quality and food safety and is demanding better transparency from market players. This caused the inclination towards clean-label items, which do not contain synthetic preservatives. However, along with the comfort, the family's consumption of food away from home is impacted by its income and demographic features.
Major players in the global united states food service market are Burger King Worldwide Inc., Starbucks Corp., Yum! Brands Inc., Doctor's Associates Inc., Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. Seven & I Holdings Co. Ltd, McDonald's Corp., Dunkin 'Donuts, Sonic Drive-In, and Papa John's.
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