The global autonomous truck market size is expected to reach USD 460 million in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 1546.84 million by 2029, growing at a CAGR of 22.4% from 2024 to 2029.
The autonomous truck market is currently in its very initial phase. Lately, the progress of unmanned or robotic vehicle technology in the trucking industry has made swift strides, with several tech organizations and heavy-duty vehicle producers starting commercial testing of autonomous driving trucks. While complete commercialization will still take some more time, the developments in this technology facilitate significant potential for solving existing industry challenges. Autonomous trucks were previously viewed as leading economically valuable and monetizable products in the self-driving industry, of these European and American organizations played an important part in their initial stages of advancement. However, post-COVID-19 freight variations worldwide and the position of autonomous driving law enforcement have decreased commercialization. Prominent players like TuSimple and Waymo have considerably reduced their tactical focus or taken exit from this market.
As per the American Trucking Association (ATA), there is a need for over 100 thousand drivers in the United States trucking market and this requirement is expected to surge to 160000 by 2028. The industry demands to recruit one million drivers throughout the coming 10 years to fill this gap, substitute for retiring personnel, and satisfy the escalating transportation needs. Similarly, the market is finding it tough to get the attention of the younger population in this industry to stay away from home for a longer period considering the viable career options available to them presently. The elderly or geriatric population in nations including China, Germany, France, Japan, Greece, etc., is predicted to worsen labor problems in the coming decade. So, the lack of drivers has significantly raised international freight transportation expenditure and operating costs for trucking organizations.
Enhanced camera and sensor technologies indicate heavy-duty commercial vehicle makers are getting near to releasing self-driving trucks. Like in Europe, Scania commenced rolling out autonomous trucks for mining areas with reserve drivers. Also, in the US, the laws regarding autonomous technology are quickly changing. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration has published regulations on automation.
Companies that operate in the autonomous trucks market have a tough job of making their systems reliable and foolproof over a broad range of potential on-road scenarios. However, widely reported and prominent accidents involving self-driving vehicles have caused public distrust and the lack of standardized levels or criteria for measuring their security and protection augments the intricacy of the development process. The market players also need to address the dilemmas, including whether to emphasize pedestrians, backup drivers, or the goods in transit. Furthermore, retrofitting existing highways, roads and streets designed for individual drivers to enable autonomous vehicle operability is a considerable undertaking.
Currently, the companies in the autonomous trucks market are reaching level 4 automation, and in the coming years, level 5 technology, which is fully automated, will prevail. Also, the small number of long-haul drivers in Canada and the United States is a potential opportunity for a growing market footprint. Moreover, the European industry is another attractive market owing to the absence of adequate drivers. A 2024 published report states that more than 233 thousand drivers are required in the United, the European Union, and Norway combined. Consequently, over 50 % of trucking companies in the region are unable to grow their business. Also, a 39 percent drop in revenue and close to 50 % of the company’s productivity decline was noticed.
The autonomous truck market is likely to face challenges in the legal sphere. Certain developed economies have already formulated regulations and guidelines related to this technology but the laws on autonomous driving trucks will demand modification or amendment to become prevalent. Presently, regulatory permission for self-driving heavy-duty vehicles, such as in hub-to-hub cases for trucks, is only available for limited quantities. This is because it comes under the approval scheme for the limited series type. It is not an issue as of now, though it will ultimately be a hindrance to extensive deployment in the coming years, which, for instance, is exactly the scenario for the European Union.
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REPORT METRIC |
DETAILS |
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Market Size Available |
2023 to 2029 |
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Base Year |
2023 |
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Forecast Period |
2024 to 2029 |
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CAGR |
22.4% |
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Segments Covered |
By Type, Autonomy, Industry, Component types, driver types, and Region |
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Various Analyses Covered |
Global, Regional, & Country Level Analysis; Segment-Level Analysis, DROC, PESTLE Analysis, Porter’s Five Forces Analysis, Competitive Landscape, Analyst Overview of Investment Opportunities |
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Regions Covered |
North America, Europe, APAC, Latin America, Middle East & Africa |
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Market Leaders Profiled |
Aptiv (Ireland), TuSimple, Inc. (U.S.), NVIDIA Corporation (U.S.), Waymo LLC (U.S.), Robert Bosch GmbH (Germany), Embark Trucks (U.S.), Tesla (U.S.), Daimler AG (Germany), Caterpillar (U.S.), AB Volvo (Sweden). |
The heavy-duty truck segment is expected to demonstrate an elevated CAGR due to the persistent scarcity of drivers, especially in the United States. Sophisticated autonomous trucks can reduce this driver shortage issue and significantly lower the expense per mile of trucking by mitigating personnel salaries. These drivers are slated to influence the heavy-duty truck segment’s market share over the projection timeframe.
Whereas, the light-duty trucks segment is also likely to exhibit major progress in the autonomous trucks market. This is attributable to the rising consumer’s insistence on introducing automated utility vehicles and pickup trucks in commercial shipment or logistics activities, particularly in the U.S.
The level 2 segment accounted for the maximum market share of the autonomous trucks industry, but level 3 is rapidly gaining traction, and certain companies in the industry have also received tests and other approvals for level 4. The level 2 segment continues to move forward at a stable pace and with the increased focus on strategies by prominent players, the industry is estimated to grow throughout the forecasting duration. Moreover, technological developments and innovations will further improve the product’s performance, which is prevailing extensively in downstream applications.
The FMCG segment led the autonomous trucks market in 2023 and is believed to continue progressing over the estimation period. The increasing need from several end-users in the industry for input materials and finished products is resulting in a higher frequency of freight delivery in different areas. This has given rise to a demand for effective logistics of FMCG items along with the escalating use of e-commerce platforms post-COVID-19, which is predicted to propel the segment’s market share throughout the forecast period.
The sensors segment held the biggest market share of the autonomous trucks industry. The demand for dependable security and protection measures has risen coupled with the research and development for automatic vehicles. For self-driving vehicles to transport safely, automated truck sensors are an important component of these sophisticated safety precautions. In addition, owing to this, currently, there is an escalating requirement for autonomous automobile sensors, which is driving the segmental expansion. Additionally, the reality that Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) are being integrated into more and more cars, busses and trucks has resulted in a gradual progress in the standards and rules related to ADAS.
The electric truck segment is predicted to move forward with the rapid rise in the autonomous trucks market because of the enforcement of strict emission laws, especially in Europe and the United States. For instance, the California Air Resource Board (CARB) implemented the Advanced Clean Truck Regulation in 2020 which is the foremost of this type in the US. The rule
The rule will progressively restrict the volume of class 3 to 8 trucks which can be commercialized from 2024 and beyond. Therefore, the segment’s market share is expected to demonstrate an elevated CAGR over the estimation period.
In the United States, this market is at a nascent stage and is moving forward slowly. Though a certain number of industry players in the country have developed the technology, they have shifted their focus to robotaxi and freight industries in other regions, especially Asia Pacific. For Instance, Alphabet’s Waymo and TuSimple have invested and made technological advancements in self-driving truck systems. After some time, TuSimple closed down its U.S. trucking business after the death of a collaboration with Navistar, a truck maker in the middle of internal instability, and directed its efforts toward Japanese and Chinese freight industries.
Aptiv (Ireland), TuSimple, Inc. (U.S.), NVIDIA Corporation (U.S.), Waymo LLC (U.S.), Robert Bosch GmbH (Germany), Embark Trucks (U.S.), Tesla (U.S.), Daimler AG (Germany), Caterpillar (U.S.), AB Volvo (Sweden). These are market players that dominate the global autonomous trucks market.
By Type
By Level of Autonomy
By Industry
By Component Types
By Driver Type
By Region
Frequently Asked Questions
The present global autonomous truck market size is expected to reach USD 460 million in 2024
The autonomous truck market is mainly driven by technological developments and serious problems faced by the heavy-duty or commercial trucking sector.
The sensors segment held the biggest market share of the autonomous trucks industry. The demand for dependable security and protection measures has risen coupled with the research and development for automatic vehicles.
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