What? When? Why?

What is the growth of the COVID-19 vaccine market?

Between 2023 and 2028, the worldwide COVID-19 vaccine market is predicted to grow at a CAGR of 7.82%.

The COVID-19 pandemic was a significant viral spread of infection in the 21st century. The spread of the infection made a historical record as it spread to almost all corners of the world and left severe humanitarian, economic, and political losses. The socio-economic dynamic of the world was shaken by this deadly epidemic that lasted for around two years, and the world is still facing the consequences of the disease. The severe acute respiratory syndrome, SARS-CoV-2 virus, or the coronavirus commonly named the COVID-19 disease by the WHO, shook the world with its sudden occurrence and difficult-to-distinguish symptoms. The disease had the same symptoms as that of a chronic cold, like cough, fever, shortness of breath, and discomfort in the chest area. Therefore, it was initially difficult to detect. In addition, the severe stages of the disease led to an extreme inability to breathe and die. Covid, in severe cases, led to pneumonia and a lack of oxygen in the lungs. The virus is speculated to have originated in China and rapidly dispersed worldwide. It was soon discovered that it is a very contagious disease and can spread through the air droplets of an infected person. The revelation sent the public into panic mode, and multiple restrictions were applied to contain the spread of the virus.

The pandemic led to an emergency due to multiple reasons. Still, one of the most substantial reasons for this panic among the governments and scientific authorities was due to the unknown nature of the disease. The virus was not the first of its kind, as coronavirus has been around for a long time and commonly causes colds. However, the SARS variety was a new virus, and we did not have a particular diagnosis or treatment, only some pathological knowledge of the disease. The need for primary research and analysis of the drug and the urgency of finding a treatment and prevention due to rapid deaths led to the emergence of the COVID-19 vaccine market. The growing research on a preventive vaccine against the disease as the world powers collaborated and put aside all political barriers to find a cure and resistance as soon as possible led to the boom of the COVID-19 vaccine market. Rapid research and development were being made in medicine for coronavirus, and significant investments were made into producing the vaccines.

What are the major factors driving the COVID-19 vaccine market growth?

Regarding the impact of vaccines on the world, there were two significant reactions from the public. First, while most of the population was relieved of the production of a safety measure, a small portion did not wholly trust the vaccines. However, the vaccine significantly relieved the world's desperate need for treatment. The COVID-19 situation led to lockdowns and norms of social distancing worldwide. People had to follow strict sanitization guidelines, and continuous spraying of disinfectants was performed at every public space, along with the strict use of masks and gloves for a long time. Therefore, the growing discomfort among the population due to rapid restrictions and obstruction of the workforce leads to more demand for the COVID-19 vaccine market. The vaccine safety being promised is guaranteed due to the strict guidelines of the FDA for vaccine approvals and safety tracking of the patients by the CDC through the national healthcare safety networks and apps like V-safe, leading to more credibility for the vaccine supporting growth. 

Additionally, the educational institutes were all shifted to the online mode, and the student population needed help to keep up with the classes and technology and a stable internet connection, especially in rural areas, leading to more need to shift back to offline modes. The growing death toll also leads to more demand for the vaccine market. The WHO reported around 6,859,093 deaths and 758,390,564 reported cases. The growing cases of chronic conditions like obesity, diabetes, lung disease, and sickle cell disease also led to severe COVID-19 situations, leading to a need for vaccines. The growing number of patients who take immunosuppressants also leads to an increased need for safety against the disease. Having COVID can lead to severe health conditions like myocarditis, which may trigger a heart attack. Therefore, the growing risk associated with the disease led to more vaccine research. Giants like Pfizer, Moderna, J&J, etc., all received investments to produce the vaccines, further accelerating demand. 

Furthermore, the high investments from world powers for the R&D surrounding COVID-19 and its vaccine and treatment procedures are expected to drive the COVID-19 vaccine market. The high number of volunteers who tested the COVID-19 vaccine for its safety also led to the rapid development of the vaccine. The fast production of vaccines for the disease due to the presence of research material from prior incidents led to trustable vaccine production. The coronavirus family has been around for a long time, and scientists have researched this family of viruses for around 50 years. Therefore, preliminary information helped the rapid development of the vaccine. The coronavirus family also caused the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) in 2012. The basis for research on the MERS vaccine led to the fast and safe production of the COVID-19 vaccine. The worldwide cooperation and sharing of research results from across the nations and the joint investments from government and private sectors like the European Commission investing $8 billion and operation warp speed (OWS) in the United States that consisted of multiple organizations like NIH and CDC supporting vaccine research leading to support for the market. 

What are the factors hampering the growth of the COVID-19 vaccine market?

The rising concerns over the safety of mRNA vaccines lead to less demand for the market. Additionally, the partial inability to resist certain mutations of the virus by the vaccine also led to drawbacks for the market. The new emergent varieties like omicron and delta led to more doubt among the populations. Additionally, certain side effects of the vaccine, like arm pain, fever, and body pains, can be a little taxing, leading to a restraint to the market growth.

Which segment by type accounted for the major share of the COVID-19 vaccine market in 2022?

The mRNA vaccines segment is expected to dominate the market during the forecast period due to the high use of mRNA-based vaccines, their credibility, and the production of treated pharmaceuticals like Pfizer and BioNTech. Furthermore, mRNA vaccines have been authorized and approved by the US FDA and are considered to be safe for use. The Vector-based and Protein Sub-unit vaccines are also under continuous research and are expected to be of use for future products.

Which region dominated the market for COVID-19 vaccines in 2022?

The market in North America is expected to dominate during the forecast period due to the heavy investment of countries like the US and Canada in the vaccine production process and the high rates of completely vaccinated populations in the region. Additionally, the staggering rates of death related to COVID-19 in the region also support the need for vaccinations. For example, the US had an estimated 11.3L deaths due to COVID-19, and Canada had around 51,447 deaths. Furthermore, the significant players in the vaccine industry, like Pfizer, Moderna, and J&J, being located in the US, support the growth of the COVID-19 vaccine market. The US government has invested around $31.9 billion in vaccine research, further supporting vaccine growth in the region.

The market in Europe and Asia-Pacific are also expected to be growing during the forecast period due to the rising awareness regarding health and well-being and the importance of curbing the pandemic. Europe was deemed as one of the most significantly affected regions in terms of population count worldwide, with a whooping 2.8l recorded deaths in the UK, 1.88L in Italy, 1.62L in France, and 1.69L in Germany. The large death toll led to a need for urgent vaccine supply in the European region. Additionally, the presence of pharmaceutical giants like F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd, Novartis AG, Novo Nordisk AS, AstraZeneca Plc, etc., who were also invested in vaccine production, supports the growth of the market in the region.

The Asia-Pacific region is also expected to grow considerably and occupy a notable share of the global market due to the presence of highly populated countries like China, India, Japan, South Korea, etc. India had around 5.31L deaths due to COVID-19. Therefore, the need for the vaccine supports market growth.

Who are the leading players in the global COVID-19 vaccine market?

• Pfizer/BioNtech (BNT 162)
• Modern Inc (mRNA-1273)
• Sinovac Biotech Ltd (PiCo Vacc)
• Astrazeneca/Oxoford (AZD1222/ChAdOx1 nCov-19)
• Gamaleya Res Inst (Sputnik)
• Serum Institute of India Pvt Ltd (Covishield)
• Bharat Biotech International Limited (Covaxin)
• Sinopharm (BBIBP-CorV)
• Johnson & Johnson (Ad26.COV2. S)
• Sanofi/GSK (AS03)
• Zydus Cadila (ZyCoV-D)
• INOVIO (INO-4800)
• CureVac (CVnCoV)
• CanSino (Ad5-nCoV)

What are some of the recent developments in the global COVID-19 vaccine market?

In March 2023, Pfizer and BioNTech collaborated with Marvel comics and are addressing the story of covid-19 through the comic title "Avengers: Everyday Heroes". The aim is to encourage people to administer the vaccine.

In March 2023, Due to the efforts of the WHO and the funding from the EU for 2 years, the vaccination numbers are rising in some secluded African regions. The project is now at the end with the last 4 months of campaigning left and it has been successful in rising the vaccination rates of countries like Liberia, Central Africa, Nigeria, etc.

In March 2023, The Philippines region is predicting that around 60 million vaccines are set to expire by this month and is urging the government to preserve or distribute the vaccines to the needed regions.